2016 Basketball Preview

Men's Division 1 college basketball has never really had any issue in finding a thorough fan base. Millions of people are glued to their television sets for pretty much the entire month of March, watching the 64-team March Madness tournament unfold. And most of those fans are also regular season fans who watch the division play unfold on a game-by-game basis over the course of the year. And while there are a solid dozen contending D1 divisions, with hundreds of teams in NCAAB, one state really does basketball a little differently than the others: Kentucky.

Kentucky basketball is the closest thing to religion you're going to find in sports. No, we don't mean a cult. We might the stadiums being churches, and the teams being must-follow rules of canon. The Kentucky Wildcats of the SEC, and the Louisville Cardinals of the ACC are two of the world's most popular basketball teams on the collegiate level, and they're the biggest thing to happen for Kentucky since bluegrass. This is especially true given the Wildcats' dominance of late, but also understand that Louisville, led by famous coach Rick Pitino, is also a superior program.

How will these Kentucky teams do this year when tip-off hits? Let's have a look at how these Kentucky teams rank individually.

The Louisville Cardinals

Scandal erupted for the Louisville Cardinals last year, involving things like parties and prostitutes and a willfully blinded Pitino supposedly allowing it to happen. Are these allegations true? Currently, they are under investigation. We bring them up not to taint the program in any way, but to offer a caveat. Any prediction we make about Louisville's chances to win hinge on the outcome of this investigation. For instance, if Rick Pitino is fired and/or players are forced to sit out, then the team is going to do poorly. However, if everything remains the same in Louisville, then you can expect more of the same this year.

The Cardinals won the NCAA Championship in 2013, after losing in the Final Four the year previous. In 2014, they made it to the Sweet Sixteen round of the tournament, and just last year they went to the Elite Eight. Needless to say, Louisville is an incredibly strong program. Michigan State has been more than a thorn in Virginia's side; they also knocked Louisville out, as the Cardinals did not have an answer for their speed, ball movement and rebounding. But the teams are very evenly matched, and any sort of rematch could easily go the Cardinals' way.

For the upcoming '15-16 season, the preseason projection is that Louisville finishes in 7th place, which would mean another Elite Eight finish. However, what seems to be guiding this is that no one really expects the Cardinals to walk away unscathed from their scandal. Though just ask those Duke lacrosse players, and they'll tell you that sometimes people just like inventing things for headlines. We don't know one way or the other what's true and what isn't. However, by the standard of innocent until proven guilty, we're not going to condemn Louisville to lost scholarships and other penalties until which time the allegations can be proven. This means we're giving Louisville the respect they have earned, and we expect to see them in the Final Four this year, possibly facing off against the Kentucky Wildcats for an in-state battle for the ages.

Louisville's Chances to Win

Though the odds change depending on the destination, the Cardinals' odds of winning it all are about roughly 20:1, scaled to context with the field. So, in other words, you're looking more at around 30:1 all told. And for Louisville, that's just fine. Unlike many collegiate programs that do well, Louisville didn't release a huge draft class to the NBA. They have a lot of key talent returning.

For starters, Rick Pitino went out and got a couple of fifth-year seniors to help give his younger players some guidance. It's rare in college basketball that talented players stick around that long. Even those not prospects for the NBA draft can still go play pro ball overseas and earn millions of dollars a year in Europe, China, Japan, etc. Skill players Damion Lee and Trey Lewis will hopefully bolster Louisville's perimeter scoring and provide leadership. They transferred in from outside of the school, already being star players at their respective, while less skilled, schools.

The Cardinals' big man, Chinanu Onuaku, is also returning for his sophomore year. At 6-10, this forward/center is a serious contender for the best basketball player in the nation. That's pure projection at this point, of course, because as of last season he only averaged 3 points and 4 rebounds a game. But that was as a freshman; as a sophomore, he's looking bigger and stronger, and if early reports of his dominance aren't exaggerated, Onuaku is like an Alonzo Mourning or Patrick Ewing. Pitino also has a few letter men returning, like Quentin Snider, Mangok Mathiang, and Anas Mahmoud. They have the talent to put on the floor on this year.

What's even better for the Louisville Cardinals is that they play in the ACC. Of course, there are some serious contenders in this conference, including the Duke Blue Devils, last year's champions, and the North Carolina Tar Heels, and even the VA Tech Hokies. Wake Forest, the Virginia Cavaliers, and Syracuse are also all good teams. But this doesn't hurt Louisville's odds of success outside of seeding. They might not enter into March Madness with a 1 seed, probably more like a mid seed, 5-9, but their conference will ensure that they're battle-tested. Unlike Kentucky who basically dominates the SEC East with no contender within miles, Louisville has to really scrape and scratch for position all year. So by the time they're in the tournament, and through the ACC Championship, they have already been baptized by fire, so to speak, and are ready for those non-conference teams in the round of 64, 32, 16, and so on.

We predict that at least one Final Four team will rise up out of the ACC. The conference is really that good. They're like the SEC West in CFB. Will that be Louisville? If the team remains as-is and isn't punished for their suspected dealings with parties and the like, we think Louisville can conquer the ACC en route to a Final Four appearance.

The Kentucky Wildcats

Until running into a battle-tested Wisconsin last season, the Kentucky Wildcats were en route to a perfect season, something that's so exceedingly rare in basketball that you could literally find odds 10 or even 20-thousands to 1 against it! The thing that may have worked against Kentucky last year was that they were never tested until the tournament. In the Southeastern Conference (SEC), teams like Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and South Carolina are all decent football schools, but they don't do much in basketball. Like, ever – they never seem to be even decent basketball teams. Kentucky dominates that conference so entirely that casual basketball fans don't even know of the existence of those other teams. And why would they? So while Kentucky can beat up on them all year, the Cardinals are playing a championship-level game every week in the ACC. So when Kentucky gets its first big test in March Madness, it is truly their first big test.

John Calipari isn't only one of the best coaches in basketball today; he's one of the all-time greats. So when it comes to getting his team ready to play, Calipari always has them ready. While they were beaten by Wisconsin last year in the Elite Eight, it was a very close match-up and the Badgers didn't simply pull away. What works in Kentucky's favor this year is that they actually have the number-two recruiting class in the nation, which means potentially more of the same. They had the same last year, and rather than putting any starting five on the floor, they played a "platoon" system, whereby players were interchangeable, only scoring a few points in a few minutes. This always kept fresh legs on the court and gave Kentucky a spark of energy for all 40 minutes of every single game in which they played. Not only did they get through the regular season undefeated, no one really even challenged them to make it close. With a fresh new recruiting class, we do expect more of the same. Not undefeated; that's just lottery-like odds against it. But we do expect only 2 or 3 losses en route to a #1 seed in March Madness, and an SEC Championship.

38-1 last season was Kentucky. Let that sink in for a minute. They won 38 games in a row. Though when it mattered most, when 1 simple loss sent them home, they dropped the ball. The odds were just too against them. If one thought it was hard in '07 for the New England Patriots to go 18-0, which they ultimately didn't, just imagine having to go 40-0. Luckily, though, that's not the goal. The goal is to win the NCAA Championship by making it to the Final Four, and a team doesn't need to go undefeated to do that. Kentucky is one of the big favorites this year to reach the Final Four.

Kentucky's Chances to Win

In the past five seasons, Kentucky has produced 15 first-round draft picks in the NBA. That's far and away better than anyone else, and it just goes to show that in the southeastern United States, good ball players flock to Kentucky. And it may not be any different this year. Kentucky has a stud of a point guard in Tyler Ulis, and three fantastic freshmen in Jamal Murray, Isaiah Briscoe, and Skal Labissiere. Perhaps their elder statesman on the team, Marcus Lee, their junior center, really gives them a presence down low. And when you get into the bench players in this platoon system, like Alex Poythress, Charles Matthews and Tai Wynyard, you start to realize that Kentucky's bench could start for 60 of the 64 tournament teams. They are a scary team to deal with in March, or at any time.

Where Kentucky is going to find trouble is in the opening of the tournament. The team can only play who's in front of them, so it's not their fault that they're not as battle-tested as other teams, but that is a reality the Wildcats have to face. The farther they get into the tournament, the tougher the opponents become. And unlike a Louisville that plays Duke and NC and VA all year, Kentucky cuts its teeth on the Bulldogs and Tigers and Commodores – teams that don't even make the tournament.

Our prediction for Kentucky is that they're going to be luckier this year in that Wisconsin is weaker, and that their branch of the tournament won't offer them that killer challenge until they reach the Final Four and have to play a team from the ACC or Big Ten. 40-0 isn't going to happen, but we can see Kentucky only losing 3 or so games realistically. Will they win the NCAA Championship? It depends on who they play. However, we do have them penciled in for a Final Four appearance. You can check out our recommended online sportsbooks that accept Kentucky players for a list of sites that we personally trust.